How much can I sell my house for?

Three different people can look at the same house on the same day and give you three different numbers. That is not a scandal. It is the market. Each number answers a different question, and the one that matters is the one attached to the question you are actually asking.

Four numbers, four questions

When someone tells you what your home is worth, ask which of these four numbers they mean.

1. The automated estimate (AVM)

Zestimate, Redfin Estimate, Realtor.com, and our own valuation are all AVMs. A model looks at recent sales nearby, your home's basic facts, and the shape of your local market, then produces a range. It is fast, free, and directional. It is not an appraisal, and it does not know that you replaced the roof last spring.

2. The appraisal

A licensed appraiser walks the property, notes condition and features, and picks specific comparable sales to defend a single number. Lenders require this before they fund a mortgage. It is defensible, slower, and costs a few hundred dollars. If your buyer is financing the purchase, the appraisal is the number that decides whether the deal closes at the agreed price.

3. The cash bid

An institutional buyer prices your home to buy it themselves, hold or renovate it, and resell. Their number bakes in their fees, their carry cost, and their required margin. It is almost always lower than what a retail buyer would pay on the open market. The trade is speed and certainty: no showings, no financing contingency, close in a week or two.

4. The list-and-net

This is what you would clear if you listed the home, negotiated with a real buyer, paid commissions and closing costs, and handed over the keys. It is the top-line list price minus every real dollar that leaves your account. A good agent can model this in an hour.

Which number should you trust?

It depends entirely on what you are deciding.

• Refinancing or pulling a HELOC: the lender's appraisal is the only number that matters. Use the AVM to sanity check.
• Selling and you have time: the list-and-net from a local agent is the projection that matters. Get two.
• Selling and you want out fast: compare a real cash bid against a realistic list-and-net. The gap is what speed costs you.
• Divorce, estate, or tax basis: get an appraisal. AVMs are not admissible.
• Just curious: any AVM will do. Watch the trend more than the single number.

Why the numbers disagree

The three biggest reasons an AVM and a real sale come apart:

1. Condition. Models do not see your kitchen. A tired interior can knock 5 to 15 percent off the number a model would print.
2. Micro-location. A busy street, a power line, a specific school boundary. Two houses on the same block can be worth different money.
3. Recent comps in a thin market. If only three homes like yours sold in the last six months, one weird sale bends the whole line.

How to get to a real number in one afternoon

1. Pull the AVM from two or three sources. Note the range, not the point estimate.
2. Ask a local agent for a written comparative market analysis. Free. They pick the comps a human would defend.
3. If you might sell, request one cash bid so you know the floor. Institutional buyers will quote without a walk-through.
4. Compare the cash bid to the agent's projected net. That gap is the price of speed for your specific home.

Do that once, and the question stops being what is my home worth. It becomes which trade am I making, and is it worth it.